Open Access
Evaluating the Predictive Performance of AI in Football Match Forecasting: A Statistical and Comparative Analysis Across European Leagues
1
Faculty of Sports Sciences, Igdır University
Abstract
This study evaluates the predictive accuracy of an AI-based model in forecasting football match outcomes and in-game statistics, specifically ball possession and pass accuracy. A total of 200 matches from top-tier leagues in ten European countries and two international club competitions were analyzed. Predictions were collected on match-day mornings using real-time web searches and compared with actual results. The AI model correctly predicted 55.5% of match outcomes, including 25 exact scorelines. Prediction accuracy varied by league, with the highest rates in Italy (70.6%) and the UEFA Champions League (66.7%), and the lowest in England (16.7%) and Portugal (17.6%). A Chi-Square test indicated a statistically significant association between AI predictions and actual results (χ² = 46.520, df = 4, p < 0.001), suggesting predictions were not random but reflected underlying patterns. Pearson correlation analysis revealed moderate relationships between predicted and actual in-game statistics, particularly for pass accuracy (r = 0.626 for away teams) and ball possession (r = 0.591 for away, r = 0.581 for home teams). Findings indicate that while AI can offer valuable insights, its reliability is inconsistent across leagues and metrics. AI models tend to perform better in structured, data-rich contexts, while unpredictable leagues present greater forecasting challenges. Future research should integrate real-time match data, advanced machine learning techniques, and sentiment analysis from social media and expert commentary to enhance predictive performance and bridge the gap between computational models and real-world football dynamics.
Keywords
AI-based Football ,Explainable AI In Sports ,Machine Learning ,Sports Analytics ,Statistical Modeling In Football ,Predictive Performance Evaluation
How to Cite
Subak, G. E. (2025). Evaluating the Predictive Performance of AI in Football Match Forecasting: A Statistical and Comparative Analysis Across European Leagues. Journal of Sports Industry & Blockchain Technology, 2(1), 30–38. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15677823
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